SECOND EVENING UPDATE:  JUNE 5, 2008

Posted at 10:59 p.m. ET

HYPOCRITE

Ed Lasky at American Thinker alerts us to a superb, and devastating picture of Barack Obama at Gateway Pundit.  Gateway examines Obama's speech yesterday to AIPAC, the main pro-Israel lobbying group.  He notes that what Obama said directly contradicts what he's said in the past.

Obama said: "Going forward, we can enhance our cooperation on missile defense."

Gateway says:  "Obama opposed missile defense."

Obama said:  "The Israelis and the Palestinian Authority warned us at the time against holding these elections. But this administration pressed ahead, and the result is a Gaza controlled by Hamas, with rockets raining down on Israel."

Gateway says:  "Hamas controls Gaza because Israel withdrew from the strip not because of democratic elections."

Obama said:  "And Syria has taken dangerous steps in pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, which is why Israeli action was justified to end that threat."

Gateway says:  "Obama questioned Israel's bombing of the Syrian nuclear plant last year."

Obama said:  "...The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat."

Gateway says:  "Barack Obama told a crowd of 75,000 last month that Iran is not a threat."

It goes on like that.  Read the whole piece and see whether you want to trust this man with the national security of the United States.

June 5, 2008.      Permalink          

EVENING UPDATE:  JUNE 5,  2008

Posted at 10:15 p.m. ET

OBAMA'S BATTLE

David Broder, in a very astute piece today, basically points out that Obama is damaged goods, and has to repair the damage.  He goes through Obama's remarkable accomplishments during this campaign, but concludes:

But for all those achievements and all those advantages, Obama limped into the nomination as a vulnerable and somewhat diminished politician. After winning 11 primaries and caucuses in a row, his magic touch seemed to depart him. He lost the knack of winning the heart of the Democratic coalition, working families that look for help in meeting the economic challenges of their everyday lives. White, Hispanic, middle-aged or older, they had strong associations with Clinton and many questions about the commitments that lay behind Obama's sweeping, reformist generalizations.

What Democrats are just beginning to figure out is that John McCain is positioned to compete with Obama for the votes of the many Americans who are eager to put the hyper-partisanship of the past eight years behind them and witness a Washington that finally begins to address the nation's challenges.

Those comments might shock some journalists who thought the Second Coming was upon us.  He goes on:

But anyone who is realistic must recognize that forging fresh agreements in Congress and the interest-group-dominated capital will take an exceptionally strong president. Since early March, Obama has not looked like that president. Once his streak stopped, his only significant win came in North Carolina. He lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky and, on Tuesday, South Dakota -- states where he didn't get that working-class vote.

In the last weeks, Obama visibly retreated. It is rare that you see a presidential candidate -- let alone a man headed for nomination -- back off from the contest to the extent Obama did. Instead of the frenetic schedule he had kept for months, Obama made a minimum of appearances in the final states, as if relying on his momentum to carry him through. That he lost all but one of the major tests was no surprise.

Finally...

Obama still has great gifts and substantial assets. So the first imperative at this point is to stop retreating and regain the initiative -- starting with a clear assertion of his absolute right to choose his own running mate and not be pressured into a decision by the Clintons or their friends.

Like Ronald Reagan at the Republican National Convention in 1980, having the wisdom to reject the plot to install Jerry Ford as his vice president, this is the big-time decision that could define a leader and lead to a victory.

And if he is elected, the challenge of being president will make all this look like high-school stuff.

June 5, 2008.      Permalink          

LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE:  JUNE 5, 2008

Posted at 4:01 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

With all the commotion this week, you'd think the tracking polls would show some change.  Very little.  Zilch.  Here they are:

Rasmussen has Obama two over McCain; Gallup has McCain one up over Obama.

There are no new results for Clinton vs. McCain, for obvious reasons. 

Tight race.  We haven't seen any indication thus far that McCain's awful performance Tuesday night has hurt him.  That shouldn't give anyone on his side confidence.  He needs polish.

More later.

June 5, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON UPDATE:  JUNE 5,  2008

Posted at 2:12 p.m. ET

THE COMEDOWN

The New York Times has always had problems, from its underplaying of the Holocaust while it was happening, to its misreporting of the Vietnam War.  But its editorial page has now deteriorated to a level that is simply breathtaking.  Today's editorial on the campaign is an example.  Although everyone knows that The Times will endorse Obama, most newspapers will try to be restrained on their editorial pages until making the endorsement.  Instead, The Times irresponsibly smears John McCain with half-truths.  Unacceptable:

...at this point in the campaign, with John McCain trying to seem independent while toeing the Republican line on the most important issues, it is far more likely that a Democratic president would give the country a clean break from the most disastrous presidency of modern times.

Why not just run the endorsement now?  It gets worse:

Mr. McCain has used the time since he clinched the Republican nomination to set the table for the fall campaign and to pin false labels on Mr. Obama: wild-eyed liberal, appeaser of terrorists. After seven years of divisiveness and failure, the country doesn’t need more name-calling. It needs a higher-toned and far more substantive campaign.

It seems to me that Senator McCain has pointed out serious problems in Mr. Obama's thinking and his shallow record.  Where are the false labels?  Examples?  More:

On the Iraq war, all Mr. McCain has offered so far is the same dodge Mr. Bush has employed so many times: to flip-flop between “things are going so badly in Iraq that we cannot leave” and — the more recent — “things are going so well in Iraq that we cannot leave.” Mr. Obama needs to explain that that is not a strategy and then outline his own plans for an orderly exit.

Despicable.  Mr. McCain rightly points out that he's been a critic of Mr. Bush's handling of the war, and has pointed the way toward a new strategy that clearly is working.  The Times is making it up.

This is the paper that the so-called intelligentsia reads.  Notice the level of our intelligentsia.

Contrast, please, with the Washington Post's editorial page.  Although liberal, the page is thoughtful, well-written, and has a responsible level of integrity.  It's page I can read and, although I'll often disagree, I can respect.

June 5, 2008.      Permalink          

THURSDAY:  JUNE 5,  2008

Posted at 6:18 a.m. ET

SHE SPEAKS

I promised to let you know what Harvard President Drew Faust said at this year's commissioning ceremony for Harvard's ROTC cadets.  As I've noted, Harvard doesn't have ROTC, but, after receiving millions in Federal aid each year, condescends to allow students to take ROTC courses at M.I.T.  Faust had announced in advance that she'd say something to protest the don't ask/don't tell policy that the military employs in regard to gays, and which many at Harvard find offensive.

Well, the cannon roared...and fired off a tiny bullet.  Faust was actually very restrained, limiting her remarks on the subject to this:  "I believe that every Harvard student should have the opportunity to serve in the military, as you do, and as those honored in the past have done."

Okay, at least she didn't grandstand.

But the damage done to ROTC over the years at the nation's most influential university was evident:

The Class of 1958 had over 150 in their ROTC class, according to Tad J. Oelstrom, a speaker at the event. By contrast, this year’s class had five, a number in keeping with recent classes.

That's where the real damage is done.  Our colleges no longer feel any obligation to participate in the national defense, and they pass on that attitude to their students.  Only a change in generation will change the policy.      

June 5, 2008.       Permalink                 

THE LEGEND

Karl Rove is a legend among political operatives.  Here he dissects what each candidate must do to win the presidency.  He stresses the importance of organization:

Politics has become hi-tech with sophisticated databases, the Internet, TV ads, focus groups and polls.

But a lanky Sangamon County, Ill., lawyer described the essential task of politics in 1840 in a letter to his Whig campaign committee. Make a list of the voters, he wrote, ascertain for whom they will vote, have undecided voters talked to by someone they hold in confidence, and, on Election Day, get all Whig voters to the polls.

Abraham Lincoln was a great president, but he was also a very practical politician. And Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama would be wise to take his advice. In a close election, organization matters a lot.

And...

Mr. Obama has a serious problem with some traditional Democratic voters. He consistently lost blue-collar households in the primaries. A recent Pew poll shows him slipping among white women (down eight points over the past month) and voters without a college degree (down seven points). Mr. Obama's support among Latino voters was a tepid 34% in the 13 primary contests with an appreciable number of Hispanics. He carried a majority of the Hispanic vote in only one state – his home state of Illinois, which he won by the slim margin of 50%-49%.

And McCain?

Mr. McCain hasn't historically valued organization, dismissing its tedious requirements as unnecessary. Mr. McCain also has an "enthusiasm deficit" with grassroots GOP activists who work the phones, walk the neighborhoods and register the voters. And he has no grassroots groups to match the Democrats, outside of the National Rifle Association and Right to Life. Mr. McCain will have to build coalitions of veterans, Catholics, Latinos, small business people, evangelicals and women in key states to close the enthusiasm gap.

There's time, but not much time, for both candidates to build effective organizations. Public interest is likely to wane in the coming months and then pick up with a bang at the end of August. The candidates will need to have their structures in place before then.

Finally...

So how are the candidates doing in building their organizations? I had a colleague call the parties' headquarters in 12 battleground states to ask who the Obama and McCain state chairmen were. Mr. Obama has four states with a chairman and eight without. Mr. McCain has nine states with chairmen and three without. Having a state chairman doesn't automatically translate into an effective organization, but having one is an essential early step.

Mr. McCain has many obstacles to overcome this year, including a political environment that favors Democrats. Mr. Obama is stumbling across the primary finish line barely ahead of Hillary Clinton, and faces big problems in uniting his party. Organization could provide the winning margin in the fall.

Good advice.   McCain could also use a speech coach. 

June 5, 2008.      Permalink          

McCAIN'S IMAGE

On that matter of a speech coach, experienced political analyst and resident Iowa expert David Yepsen agrees, contrasting Obama's superb performance Tuesday night, and McCain's:

The contrast between the 46-year old Obama and the 71-year-old McCain could not be more stark.

Obama was cool and showed more energy than McCain who, well, looks old. Very old.

Obama's better command of the teleprompter could prove as important to the outcome of the race as any policy.

It's not a trivial matter.

During the Kennedy-Nixon debates of 1960, surveys found those who listened to it on the radio thought Nixon won. Those who watched on television thought Kennedy won. He simply looked the part.

Successful presidents and presidential candidates have historically been those who have had the best command of the communications technology of their day. Franklin Roosevelt led a nation through the Great Depression and World War II with his radio broadcasts. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan led with their use of television.

That is important since a president's first task is to lead and inspire a nation and the world. Television, one of the most powerful forces in our culture, is the most important way that is done. On that score, and that score alone, Obama is well ahead of the crusty, halting, ashen McCain. His lackluster performances are simply uninspiring.

Can you imagine the television contrasts when the two men debate? Unless McCain can find a better way to use television - or get audiences to focus on some other issue - it will bring back memories of those Kennedy-Nixon debates.

We've discussed this before.  It's the first major crisis in the McCain campaign, and I'm not sure anyone is doing much about it.  Reagan, a trained actor, would practice and practice and practice for his speeches.  I had the feeling Tuesday night that McCain had read his maybe once.  Churchill said that he'd devote an hour of preparation for every minute of his addresses.  McCain sounded like it was, for him, a one-to-one ratio.

The camera will move in close on McCain during the debates.  The networks may not be kind.  McCain has got almost four months until the campaigns launch their post-Labor-Day blitzes.  He's got to work on his style every day, or lose.  It's as stark as that.

June 5, 2008.      Permalink